I’m not new to the bike industry, and as the headline suggests this will be my 12th year as a full-time Bike Fitter. Kind of funny, because I swore black and blue I would not be drawn into bikes at the end of my racing career.
From the last dozen years I can say for sure that the cycling population of South East Queensland put their bikes in the garage in the last week of May, and historically get them out again in the last week of the Tour De France. With the earlier edition of TDF this year meaning it will be the dead middle of winter at that point, I wonder what effect that will have on the respawning of cycling after the cold snap?
Those who reside in colder states will laugh at our cries that suggest it’s cold because of course us Queenslanders “don’t even have winter”. When you only look at the days maximum temps, that would be a fair assumption. What gets misunderstood by our “significantly tougher and harder” southern friends is that our temperature range is MASSIVE compared to theirs. Its mid May and I had 2 degrees this morning at home (Gold Coast hinterland) and 26 degrees in the day. With a temp range of over 15 degrees in the space between sunrise and 7am, it becomes a nightmare for us Queenslanders to appropriately dress for.
I would prefer without question, to ride in the Victorian cold compared to the Queensland temperature swing.
As usual, I digress from my point, which is that about now every year the bike industry stalls.
Recently there have been some shocking exits from the industry locally, and the general outlook post the covid boom of sales is that its going to be a rough year because of stock limitations and consumers having spent up big with the govt handouts. Not a lot of new road bikes are being bought, and the pricing of second-hand bikes is through the roof! New Bike fever isnt infecting as many people as usual, especially when their mates aren’t getting upgrades as often. It’s like the freight train of consumerism is slowing down for a little bit.
Triathlon as a sport is suffering thanks to canceled events. Most triathletes only consider a bike fit if they are training FOR something.
My crystal ball is broken, but if I were to guess, I would say that it’s going to be a slow 6 months for much of the bike industry (particularly the high-end market). Happy to be wrong, but for now I will enjoy a bit of a breather. It’s been hectic the last few years, and I deserve a break.
Jotting this down as a reflective piece in the hope I am completely wrong, but also as an explanation of what I see happening at the moment.
On the plus side, I’ll get to write more, ride more, and enjoy more. Lets wait and see.
